Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.141070 1.206577 1.274590 1.350624 1.433432 1.521078 1.621119
2026-02-01 1.022878 1.113439 1.211554 1.326313 1.457570 1.603871 1.780482
2026-02-08 0.938643 1.041311 1.155722 1.293697 1.456965 1.645776 1.883275
2026-02-15 0.885893 0.997898 1.125598 1.283535 1.475841 1.705370 2.004702
2026-02-22 0.849412 0.969482 1.109121 1.285710 1.506299 1.777281 2.142755
2026-03-01 0.807800 0.931789 1.078317 1.267022 1.507802 1.810853 2.231542
2026-03-08 0.764639 0.889621 1.039272 1.234916 1.489013 1.815456 2.279997
2026-03-15 0.736373 0.864080 1.019005 1.224631 1.496544 1.853332 2.374378
2026-03-22 0.723678 0.856978 1.020978 1.242251 1.540697 1.941601 2.544463
2026-03-29 0.704806 0.841064 1.010703 1.242805 1.561229 1.997815 2.671581
2026-04-05 0.692568 0.832915 1.009765 1.255232 1.597981 2.078114 2.839843
2026-04-12 0.672955 0.814390 0.994349 1.247052 1.605033 2.115488 2.944332
2026-04-19 0.662821 0.808395 0.995890 1.263070 1.648586 2.211045 3.152523
2026-04-26 0.638806 0.783311 0.971008 1.241237 1.636245 2.222048 3.224430
2026-05-03 0.613503 0.755653 0.941593 1.211603 1.610626 2.210661 3.257018
2026-05-10 0.597141 0.739406 0.927056 1.202363 1.614603 2.245050 3.370324
2026-05-17 0.585733 0.729414 0.920643 1.204341 1.635290 2.306718 3.536734
2026-05-24 0.568523 0.710970 0.901828 1.187341 1.625762 2.318547 3.613373
2026-05-31 0.548125 0.687603 0.875413 1.158111 1.595740 2.294686 3.621130
2026-06-07 0.535278 0.674293 0.862726 1.148740 1.596380 2.321770 3.727647
2026-06-14 0.531241 0.673033 0.866990 1.164791 1.638029 2.420678 3.983606
2026-06-21 0.522548 0.664988 0.861231 1.165296 1.654389 2.476646 4.159378
2026-06-28 0.517553 0.661972 0.862563 1.176610 1.688856 2.566599 4.415481